Used vehicle prices continue to rise but no substantial affect seen yet on total loss valuations
Wholesale used vehicle prices — on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis — were higher in June compared to May, according to Cox Automotive.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.5, representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% rise above May.
“The seasonal adjustment forced the index higher in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell more than usual following the volatility induced by the tariff announcement,” Cox Automotive said in a press release. “The non-adjusted price in June decreased 1.1% compared to May, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 5.1% year over year.”
Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, added, “Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well.
“The Manheim index has generally been rising since last June, and we typically see the strongest changes for the year in the second quarter as the ‘spring bounce’ comes to an end. As we move through the second half of 2025, it’s likely that some of the reported strength in the market tapers, as the year-over-year comparisons are tougher in the back half of the year. Even so, retail sales continue to run a bit hotter than prior years, and off-lease supply into the market is still on a downward path, two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward.”
According to Ryan Mandell, auto physical damage solutions claims performance director for Mitchell International, used vehicle pricing hasn’t experienced a substantial impact from tariffs.
“Overall total loss market values were relatively stable in Q2 2025, and BEVs continued their trend of gradual decline (-1.70%) while ICE vehicles were flatter, with only a nominal decline of 0.21%,” he said. “Plug-in hybrid market values followed a similar trend as BEVs, with a 2.87% decline, while mild hybrids actually posted a 1.62% increase.
“The greatest demand appears to be for newer vehicles (zero to three years old), which saw the largest increase in average total loss market value in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 at 0.96%, while four- to -6 year-old vehicle values increased by 0.28%, seven- to 9-year-old vehicles decreased by 0.35% and 10-plus-year-old vehicles increased by only 0.02%. The increase experienced for newer vehicles is likely explained by the fact that these are the closest analogs in the market to what is available on dealer lots, and consumers are looking for a way to hedge against tariff-related price increases (whether real or perceived) in the new vehicle market.”
Following a relatively quiet period, activity surrounding tariffs peaked again as the 90-day pause on additional reciprocal tariffs ended on July 9, according to Kyle Krumlauf, CCC Intelligent Solutions industry analytics director. “Aug. 1 has become the next major date to watch, as many trading partners have received letters informing them of the new tariff rates. We can expect activity over the next few weeks as countries and trading blocs (EU) negotiate terms or extensions.”
He added that CCC data shows part prices are on the rise this year, especially in recent months, with the average price per part on estimates written in March and April up 4.6% and 4.7% respectively. In May, data for which is still developing, was at 5.8%.
“Used vehicle prices are on the rise, which can lead to increased repairable claims, as well as overall increases in loss severity,” Krumlauf said. “Manheim is generally a leading indicator, and though we’ve seen average adjusted vehicle values flattening year over year, total loss rates haven’t begun to decrease. This could also be affected by other factors, such as vehicle age mix.”
Cox Automotive says the used vehicle market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability and resilience, even as the broader automotive landscape experiences shifts in pricing and supply. While the new-vehicle segment has seen more pronounced swings, the used market has remained consistently strong.
“Historically, the used market has been incredibly consistent, but the pandemic disrupted much of that consistency, and starting in mid-2020, we saw much more volatility than we’d normally expect,” said Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive’s chief economist, in the release. “What we are seeing in the Manheim Index over the course of the first half of this year suggests we could finally be out of that pattern. Demand has remained steady, but the real change has been in supply. With the acceleration of the new-vehicle market in early Q2, an uptick in trade-ins naturally followed, increasing used inventory. The change in supply-side dynamics is driving the return to normal for the used-vehicle market, and this stability is what we expect to see in the second half of 2025.”
In June, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values experienced price declines each week of the month, with the largest weekly decline occurring in the final week. During that final week, MMR values fell by 0.6%, which was higher than weekly rates earlier in the month.
During the first week of June to the first of July, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.3%, which Cox Automotive says is higher than normally seen.
According to Cox Automotive’s data, those same weeks saw an average decrease of 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were elevated and influenced by higher inventory levels and the volatility caused by the tariffs implemented over the last quarter.
The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.8% in June, an increase of over 1 percentage point against last month and higher than normally seen at this time of year, Cox Automotive said. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 53.1% in June throughout the last three years.
Almost all major market segments experienced higher seasonally adjusted prices year-over-year in June, with the exception of compact cars, which decreased 0.1%. The industry-wide increase was 6.3%.
Compared to June 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the fifth consecutive month, increasing by 8.8%. SUVs came in second, rising by 6% over the last year. Mid-size sedans and trucks increased 2.8%.
All segments were higher compared to May, with the luxury segment rising by 1.2%, while the trucks segment was higher by 1.1%. Both compact cars and SUVs were higher by 1%, while mid-size sedans rose 0.8% in the period.
By powertrain, electric vehicle values are showing significant gains compared to last year, partly due to the depressed values seen during the comparison period, Cox Automotive said.
Wholesale EV values experienced steep declines in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, reaching their lowest point since Q3 2021 in June 2024. Since then, EV values have rebounded, with year-over-year appreciation trends outpacing those of non-EVs for the past three months.
In June, EV values were up 12.1% year-over-year, while non-EVs rose by 5.6%. Month-over-month, EV values increased by 1.5%, slightly ahead of the 1.4% gain for non-EVs.
Cox Automotive says a broader shift within the used EV market also supports the rebound, and is set up for a “potentially impressive” Q3.
“The used-EV market is becoming more diverse, moving beyond a concentration in just a few models like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3,” Robb said. “This growing diversity has contributed to improved values and a more mature used-EV landscape.
“With the EV tax credits for new and used vehicles now set to be eliminated at the end of Q3 and supply levels currently tightening, we could see further strength in the used-EV segments in the coming months as consumers rush to take advantage of the credit before it expires.”
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used vehicle sales in June were down 1.5% compared to May but up 2% year-over-year.
New vehicle sales in June declined 4.2% compared to 2024, and volume was down sharply month over month, falling 14.2% from an elevated level in May, when the market continued to be influenced by tariff enactment.
The June sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 15.3 million, up 0.3 million from last year’s pace, and lower than 15.6 million in May.
“The used market is proving to be much more stable, as expected, with consumers opting for used vehicles due to uncertainty about tariffs remaining at current levels,” the release states. “Cox Automotive projects that used vehicle sales will reach 20.1 million in 2025, which is an estimated 1.2% increase compared to 2024. Sales growth is expected to remain muted, as retail and wholesale supply will continue to be constrained in the coming year due to lower production during the pandemic and fewer lease maturities returning to the market.
“With the increased pressure on the cost of new units, used vehicle values, as measured by the MUVVI, are expected to experience more appreciation in 2025 than seen over the last few years. Before the announcement of tariffs, the forecast had the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ending December 2025 up 1.4% from the end of 2024, slightly below the long-term average rise of 2.3%. In March, the forecast was revised upward to an increase of 2.1%, due to the condition of the used retail supply and the anticipation that a greater number of consumers will shift from purchasing new vehicles to used ones.”
Cox Automotive added that, due to the volatility observed in the market over the last quarter, coupled with stronger year-over-year comparisons in the latter half of 2025, the MUVVI is now projected to be 1.8% higher year-over-year by December, just below its long-term run rate.
Regarding the impact of tariffs on the insurance industry, Swiss Re Institute reported on July 9 that the greatest and most direct impact has been on non-life claims severity, most notably in motor and construction.
“U.S. motor physical damage is the most tariff-impacted insurance sector,” Swiss Re wrote. “U.S. tariffs are expected to increase prices for auto parts used for repairs, and also for new and used cars. However, claims severity increases should be modest relative to the post-COVID-19 inflation impact.
“Uncertainty complicates the assessment of loss cost trends for insurers. Loss costs could rise by low-to-mid single-digit percentages. Our baseline forecast is for U.S. motor repair and replacement costs to grow by 3.8% in 2025, more than the 0.8% decrease we had forecast in November last year. Nevertheless, this is still lower than the annual increases of 14% in 2021 and 13% in 2022.”
In a separate July 16 report, Swiss Re Institute said personal auto insurance continues to be a driver of industry improvement, with the Q1 loss ratio falling five percentage points from 2024.
“However, this line of business faces higher uncertainty in the second half of the year as the outcome of tariff decisions and their impact on the vehicle production supply chain (especially cars produced in Mexico and Canada under the [U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement] USMCA) remain unclear,” the report states. “There are already signs of acceleration in claims components such as used car prices and repairs. Despite the uncertainties, personal auto insurers resumed rate cuts following a pause after the early April tariff announcement.”
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