TechForce: More than 73,000 collision techs needed by 2029, retention partially to blame
The U.S. economy is short roughly 140,000 skilled technicians a year, and the gap is widening, with 73,354 new collision repair entrant technicians needed by 2029, according to the TechForce Foundation’s new “Technician Supply, Demand & Opportunity Report.”
The latest edition of the report expands the foundation’s analysis from four sectors to 10, covering workers who keep American cars, trucks, planes, factories, hospitals, and data centers running.
Across those 10 sectors, employers will need 241,842 new technicians per year through 2029, the report finds, compared with 101,743 students who graduated from technical schools and community colleges last year. TechForce found that the collision repair sector sees the highest turnover of the 10 analyzed at 60.7%.
However, the report adds that technicians aren’t retiring faster than the overall workforce. For example, 3.5% of automotive technicians exit the workforce compared to 4.8% of all U.S. workers.
“The problem is recruitment, not retention,” the report states. “This shifted the policy argument entirely.”
The cumulative five-year shortfall reaches 1.2 million workers. Lost-wage output to the U.S. economy totals $7.42 billion a year and $37 billion over the projection window, according to the report.
“The pendulum has swung in America,” said Jennifer Maher, TechForce Foundation CEO, in a press release. “Society now recognizes four-year universities aren’t the only road to success.”
Nine of the 10 sectors tracked in the report pay at or above the national median wage of $49,500, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The report notes that collision repair technicians, increasingly trained in materials science and ADAS calibration, earn $51,680.
Most of these careers can be reached through a one- or two-year certificate program, accounting for 92% of completions across the 10 sectors covered in the report. Six of the sectors didn’t produce any bachelor’s degrees in 2025.
More than 4 million Americans aged 16 to 24 are neither in school nor working, according to data from the Annie E. Casey Foundation cited in the report.
“Disconnection is higher in rural counties than in urban or suburban areas,” the release states. “Roughly 40% of recent high school graduates do not enroll in college, the report notes, citing the National Center for Education Statistics. Of those who do enroll, 30% drop out within two years.”
The report adds that there is no modern workforce navigation system for skilled careers waiting for students when they graduate.
“We tell young people, ‘You can be anything you want,’ but throw them to the wind to figure it out,” the report states.
The release notes there is currently renewed federal interest in skilled trades, with President Donald Trump signing Executive Order 14278 in April 2025, “Preparing Americans for High-Paying Skilled Trade Jobs of the Future.” The order directed the Departments of Labor, Commerce, and Education to consolidate and streamline federal workforce development programs and set a target of 1 million new active apprentices.
“In January, the Labor Department issued guidance requiring all 50 states to submit modified workforce-development plans by spring 2026 under the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act,” the release states. “TechForce Foundation, which produces the longest-running longitudinal analysis of the U.S. technician workforce, has positioned its report as the data backbone those state plans will need.”
The U.S. has 805,600 employed automotive technicians servicing a fleet at a record-high average age of 12.8 years, according to S&P Global Mobility data cited in the report. It notes that auto repair generates more than $340 billion in annual North American revenue, according to Market Research Future. The sector produces roughly 42,000 graduates a year compared to 70,000 annual job openings.
“Sector variance across the 10 industries is sharp. Aircraft maintenance, where Federal Aviation Administration certification has tightened the link between training and employment, fills 80% of its annual demand and is the only sector in the report approaching equilibrium,” the release states. “Medical equipment fills 9%. Industrial machinery fills 15%.
“HVAC, the cooling backbone of every commercial building, hospital, and AI data center in the United States, has 669 institutions training technicians but produces graduates to fill only 64% of annual demand. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the sector to grow much faster than average through 2034, classified as ‘much faster than average’ in its Occupational Outlook Handbook.”
Where the graduates come from
Postsecondary completions in the 10 sectors grew 7.6% last year, the third consecutive year of growth. Eight of the 10 sectors expanded; only avionics and agricultural-equipment programs declined.
Production is concentrated. Hallmark University in San Antonio, Texas, alone produces 15.3% of all U.S. avionics-technician graduates. WyoTech, in Laramie, Wyoming, leads all U.S. institutions in diesel completions. Reedley College, in California’s Central Valley, produces 22.5% of the country’s farm-equipment technicians. Six of the top 10 institutions training U.S. industrial-machinery mechanics are in Kentucky’s community-college system.
TechForce Foundation, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that operates in all 50 states, awards $6.5 million in scholarships annually and partners with more than 1,400 schools. Its workforce platform serves more than 100,000 students and working technicians, the foundation says, and is adding several thousand new users a month.
In a survey of 13,370 of its scholarship applicants between December 2024 and December 2025, nearly half cited the costs following paying for tuition, including tools, supplies and housing, as their primary obstacle. Eight percent were veterans whose benefits didn’t fully cover their education and career paths.
“The technician career was built for exactly how they are wired,” Maher said in the release. “Let’s guide these people into highly skilled, in-demand, sustainable careers.”
Retention compounding the problem
1.18 million hired | 1.14 million lost | Net gain: 32,450 | Highest turnover: Collision 60.7% | Lowest turnover: Aviation 32.3%
Across all 10 sectors, employers hired 1.18 million technicians in 2025 and lost 1.14 million.
The net gain was approximately 32,000 workers, against more than 241,000 annual openings.
“Pipeline expansion without retention reform will not solve the shortage,” the report states. “Industry must invest in the conditions that keep technicians engaged, including comprehensive benefits, clear career pathways, modern tools, and workplace cultures that support long-term success. You cannot solve a shortage if you cannot keep the people you train.”
The report notes that collision repair completions may appear lower than expected. This is because some data providers, including Lightcast, group automotive and collision completions together due to overlapping CIP codes and the reality that an automotive-trained technician can transition into collision work, the report states. TechForce says it reports these sectors separately and doesn’t double-count completions across automotive and collision.
“BLS projects 14,600 annual openings for collision repair technicians through 2034,” the report states. “Annual demand of 14,671 new entrants dwarfs what the training system produces. Supply covers only 42% of annual demand. At a median wage of $51,680, collision repair pays above the national median. These positions increasingly require advanced skills in materials science, electronic calibration, and ADAS sensor alignment.”
Collision/autobody completions grew 14.2% year-over-year to 5,462, the strongest growth rate of any sector. Only 325 institutions offer collision programs nationally. Texas leads completions at 11.2%.
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All graphics/charts from TechForce Foundation’s new “Technician Supply, Demand & Opportunity Report” © Copyright 2026 TechForce Foundation. All rights reserved.