S&P: Progressive passes State Farm in annual market share

State Farm has lost its position as the No. 1 auto insurer on a 12-month basis for the first time since World War II, according to S&P Global Market. 

Progressive wrote more private direct premiums for the trailing 12-month period ending March 31 than any other auto insurer, S&P says. 

It wrote more than State Farm by over $1.57 billion, based on S&P’s analysis of disclosures in Q1 2026 statutory financial statements and select, limited proprietary estimates. 

“This marks the first time that Progressive’s market share over a 12-month span has surpassed that of State Farm, which had ranked as the No. 1 U.S. private auto insurer since 1942 — five years before Progressive’s founding,” an article from S&P’s Market Intelligence says. 

S&P notes it previously estimated that Progressive outpaced State Farm in Q3 2025 but adds that seasonality in individual private auto books of business often leads to considerable variability in quarterly volumes. 

“Disparate growth rates for the two insurers made it seemingly inevitable that Progressive would surpass State Farm on a full-year basis in 2026 after the latter entity held onto the No. 1 spot in 2025 by only a razor-thin margin,” S&P says. “Progressive has continued to expand its private auto writings at much faster rates than most of its peers and the US property and casualty industry as a whole in recent years, and its first-quarter results imply that trend has persisted into 2026.”

Progressive gained 210 basis points of market share on State Farm in 2025, leaving the companies with only 4 basis points of separation at year-end, S&P says.

Together, the two insurers accounted for 37.2% of the industry’s private auto premium volume in 2025, up from 35.5% in 2024. 

“Historically favorable underwriting results in the private auto business in 2025 have brought a significant increase in competition in a market that saw considerable retrenchment amid elevated loss-cost inflation from the second half of 2021 through the first part of 2024,” the report says.

Progressive surpassed GEICO to take the No. 2 position in 2022, the report says. GEICO took the No. 2 position in 2013 after passing Allstate. 

“Over the past 30 years, Progressive has leveraged evolution in technology and consumer behavior to transition from largely a nonstandard auto insurer to a standard market powerhouse in both the independent agency and direct-to-consumer distribution channels,” the report says. “During that time, the company’s private auto market share has expanded by upwards of 16% points, positioning it as the industry leader — a status it already attained in the commercial auto market more than a decade ago.”

State Farm has been under fire over the past year because of its claims handling practices for home and auto insurance. 

Earlier this month, the California Department of Insurance found 398 violations against State Farm related to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.

CDI announced that it is seeking millions of dollars in penalties, which it claims is the largest amount pursued this century following a wildfire disaster. 

The department filed an Accusation and Order to Show Cause against State Farm. It says this is the first step toward a public hearing before an administrative law judge. 

In Missouri, Fox 4 reports that U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley is threatening to subpoena State Farm if it doesn’t comply with an inquiry he sent them last month. 

Hawley demanded that State Farm pay policyholders for tornado damage that occurred in 2025, and asked the company to answer questions about its claim practices in the state in a letter that he made public in April. 

Also in April, Michael Bradshaw, vice president of K&M Collision in Hickory, North Carolina, brought forward examples of claims review challenges that he and others in the industry experience, in which insurance carriers are “tactfully taking the relational aspect out of claims.” 

Bradshaw spoke on the subject at the Society of Collision Repair Specialists (SCRS) Board of Directors open meeting on April 21 in a question-and-answer session with North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, and again during an open mic session at the Collision Industry Conference (CIC)’s April 22 meeting. Both meetings were held in Charlotte. 

A P&C Specialist article, also recently explored changes State Farm has made to its auto claim practices, including moving to centralized auto claim audit teams and cutting labor rates. 

“The Bloomington, Illinois-based insurer has lowered labor rates by as much 20% in the past eight months, depending on the location of the repair shop,” the article states. “It is also increasingly leveraging its audit team to review estimates written by its own staff adjusters and has modified policy language related to reimbursements for labor, sources said.”

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