S&P Global shares how EVs could be shaped by changing economic trends
S&P Global Mobility reports that economic trends are pushing automakers to rethink their electric vehicle supply chains and certain aspects of vehicle design.
“Amid shifting global trade dynamics, automakers are being forced to rethink supply chains for critical electric vehicle (EV) components,” S&P’s article states. “EV motors — long dependent on rare earth elements (REEs) — are now a strategic pressure point. Recent export restrictions from mainland China, which currently dominates the mining and refining of rare earth elements, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, have transformed automakers’ dependence on REEs into a significant strategic vulnerability.”
In response, S&P has found automakers are either reducing or eliminating the use of REEs in their EV motors.
“Cultivating robust supply chains for these alternatives will require close collaboration across Tier-1 and Tier-2 suppliers, as well as substantial in-house investment in advanced manufacturing capabilities,” the article states.
S&P predicts that the automakers who strengthen and diversify operations will mitigate cost volatility, reduce geopolitical risk, and accelerate EV adoption, according to the article. It points to recent actions by Renault and Honda as examples.
“Renault is now actively seeking more cost-effective stator components from China while planning to manufacture the remaining parts internally, targeting full deployment by 2028,” the article states. “Similarly, Honda’s venture arm, Xcelerator Ventures, has invested in Enedym, a Canadian startup specializing in innovative switched reluctance motors (SRMs), a technology that eliminates the need for rare earth elements entirely.”
The article notes that Niron Magnetics has partnered with Stellantis to develop rare-earth-free EV motor designs. S&P expects that by 2030, General Motors and Volkswagen will incorporate induction motors in their EVs as opposed to magnet-based motors.
In September, Ducker Carlisle wrote that the Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” would likely “extend far beyond regulatory compliance,” and into the materials and processes used to manufacture vehicles.
“With consumer EV incentives stripped away and federal agencies signaling a freeze on vehicle efficiency rules, the U.S. market faces a slowdown in both electrification and lightweight material adoption,” the Ducker Calisle whitepaper states.
It adds that OEMs could potentially use less magnesium, aluminum, and composites, slowing the growth trajectory for innovative solutions that do.
“OEMs may choose to extend platform lifecycles, and this may lead them to revert to lower cost and heavier internal combustion engine (ICE) platforms,” the paper says. “While EVs and global OEM programs may continue to support lightweighting trends and electrification, the U.S. market’s reduced regulatory pressure may lead to stagnation in lightweighting needs.”
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