Focus Advisors’ Mid-Year Review: ‘Different drivers, different gears’

Focus Advisors reports that M&A trends have shifted to fewer acquisitions with more buyers, while “appetite didn’t go away.”

In its 2025 Year in Review, Focus Advisors’ David Roberts predicted more acquisitions by consolidators, private equity firms, and regional privately owned MSOs.

Now, looking at six months into 2026, Madeleine Roberts Rich writes in Focus Advisors’ Mid-Year Review that’s not the case.

“Acquisition activity has slowed — fewer transactions than in either of the past two years, despite a record number of buyers in the first half,” she writes. “All transaction opportunities are being scrutinized more heavily than at any point in recent memory and are facing longer closing timelines; this applies even to very small transactions.

“But more activity by smaller buyers — Collision Partners, Minuteman, and Collision Leaders among them — plus accelerating activity by G&C Auto Body beyond its home state, has driven much of the shift in focus. Single-shop acquisitions among smaller MSOs continue in many markets, and often unnoticed alongside some of the very smallest independents quietly disappearing. In other words, the collision industry’s M&A appetite didn’t go away. The buyers changed and so did their gears.”

Roberts Rich adds in the report that most buyers Focus Advisors previously spoke with after last October’s announcement by Gerber Collision & Glass on their deal to acquire Joe Hudson’s Collision Centers said they expected to get more active in 2026.

“[T]hat enthusiasm turned out to be early rather than empty,” she writes. “Some larger buyers have accelerated, while most are moving deliberately, in a lower gear, with heightened diligence and selectivity. Meanwhile, a new class of smaller, faster-moving buyers has stepped into that space and done much of the actual acquiring.”

The report states that combined additions by the “Big Four” — Gerber, Caliber Collision, Crash Champions, and Classic Collision, established consolidators, and new entrants were 81 locations in the first half of 2026, excluding Gerber’s acquisition of Joe Hudson’s 258 locations that closed in January. Including the Joe Hudson’s acquisition brings that total to 339.

Comparatively, Focus Advisors has tracked 300-plus locations added in the first half of 2024 and more than 200 in H1 2025. The latest report from Roberts Rich calls this year’s first half “a clear step down from prior years,” noting the additions are spread across the widest field of buyers Focus Advisors has ever tracked.

“We caution against drawing a straight line from H1 through the second half of 2026 and into 2027,” she writes. “We think this is a pause rather than a trend. Our expectation is a marked step-up in activity as we approach the fourth quarter and carrying through 2027.

“The giants aren’t backing off so much as catching their breath. A related phenomenon appearing in total location counts is closures; even as the Big Four continue to add shops, they are also shedding a select few of them — sometimes redundant locations, sometimes non-renewals of leases signed a decade ago that are now coming up for renewal. Choosing to let go rather than renew in a less desirable or overpriced location, or one whose volume has migrated to a more efficient shop in the same ZIP code, is an increasingly common part of the math. This is a normal feature of industry consolidation.”

It notes that H1 2026 growth was from smaller, largely PE-backed platforms — CollisionRight, Quality Collision Group, VIVE Collision, Puget Collision, BrightPoint Autobody Repair, G&C Auto Body, OpenRoad Collision, and Chilton Auto Body. They collectively grew five to seven times faster than the Big Four in H1, according to Focus Advisors.

The report notes that among established consolidators that Focus Advisors found are “pausing rather than pressing forward,” Kaizen didn’t add any shops in the first half.

“Similarly, BrightPoint, one of the most active acquirers last year, slowed sharply, adding only one shop in H1: Bruce’s in Paris, Tennessee,” the report states. “The U.S. collision repair map increasingly shows each region is developing its own distinct M&A personality.”

Focus Advisors defines the Northeast by VIVE’s continued growth and the recent launches of Minuteman and Driving Force. It says the Midwest has become “the province of young, hungry independent MSOs,” while CollisionRight “digests” personnel changes and its existing stores.

Roberts Rich writes that private equity firms are eager for a Southeast platform — “the region where Collision Partners launched, Quality Collision Group entered Florida in late 2025, and where Classic Collision is greenfielding.”

On the West Coast, Chilton is growing through California, and Puget continues building in the Pacific Northwest while widening its scope, according to the report.

“California, Chicago, and the Northeast are drawing attention across all buyer types,” the report states. “Several of the largest buyers continue to pursue brownfield and greenfield projects while their acquisition pipelines take longer to move through closing — and sellers, for their part, are generally holding their ground on price.”

Roberts Rich also notes that smaller private equity-backed MSOs are becoming more active; among them, she writes “the most conspicuous debut” was Collision Partners’ acquisition of Chassis Master and Fantastic Finishes in Florida, and how “it made bigger waves” with the acquisition of K&M Auto Body in Hickory, North Carolina.

“Collision Partners appears to be targeting shops with high-line certifications with strong dealership and OE relationships, an approach that leans more on dealer and direct-to-consumer marketing than on DRP relationships,” Roberts Rich writes. “Minuteman Collision, led by Gerber’s former head of M&A, Jason Hope, debuted by acquiring four locations across greater Boston.”

Notably, Roberts Rich writes in the report that “the U.S. collision repair industry appears to have found its footing — at a new, lower level.”

“[B]ut one that is finally steady enough to plan and price against,” she writes. “Our best estimate is that industry revenue declined just under 5% year-on-year, even as cars remain broadly less affordable and the average total cost of repair keeps climbing; Boyd Gerber said in its Q2 2026 investor report that those cost headwinds have made same-store sales growth harder to achieve. One long-time operator looking to re-enter the space summed up the mood bluntly to us: “the collision industry’s weird right now.”

The report also covers how many operators, large and small, are diversifying their businesses; Tesla’s continued expansion; notes that “capital is moving differently, not away” regarding private equity; C-suite changes; M&A across the broader automotive aftermarket industry; and what Focus Advisors expects the outcomes of the second half of 2026 will be.

“We do not foresee an end to the private equity-backed consolidation trend,” Roberts Rich writes. “What is different so far in 2026 is where that money has been invested: with few large platforms coming to market, buyers have focused on starting or building out roll-ups one single shop or small MSO at a time, while some longer-standing platforms have shifted from acquiring independent MSOs to growing through greenfield and brownfield development instead.”

Specific to the second half of the year, Focus Advisors says it’s hearing from several consolidators that revenues have stabilized or returned to growth year-over-year.

“[W]hile that often represents a lower bar than a few years ago, most describe it as a ‘new normal’ rather than a temporary trough,” Roberts Rich writes. “Industry insiders also tell us several larger, more established consolidators are now accessing new lines of credit and additional capital to recommence acquisitions. With significant transactions in process among Focus Advisors clients, our expectation is that this second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 will see a return to a more robust volume of transactions.

“Sellers anchored to their peak-year numbers should still expect to recalibrate if their trailing twelve-month EBITDA remains below its high-water mark, even as acquisition activity picks back up. Moreover, the volume of single-shop operators looking to exit has grown dramatically higher. Sellers in markets where acquirers are committing new capital should be able to find ready buyers.”

Read the full report here, from Focus Advisors.

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Featured image credit: Natee Meepian/iStock

Graphs and charts republished with permission from Focus Advisors