Verisk: ‘Insurance risk paradox’ as 2025 claims volume declined, risk further elevated and concentrated
Insurance claims declined in 2025, but the underlying risks became more complex and concentrated, according to Verisk’s 2025 Annual Insurance Claims Trends Report.
Compared to 2024, last year saw lower claims volumes, particularly for homeowners’ claims, due in part to a quiet hurricane season. However, the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires added a layer of complexity to claims, as losses may continue to develop for years to come, based on historical patterns, according to a press release on the report.
Verisk reports that losses were driven less by total acreage burned and more by wildfires impacting densely populated communities with higher home values. Smoke damage also emerged as a major loss driver, accounting for roughly 30% of claims filed within the first 30 days, highlighting early-stage loss development, the report states.
Historical patterns suggest wildfire losses may continue to develop for years, according to Verisk.
The report states that personal auto claims volume reached a high of 34.4 million claims in 2022 and declined each subsequent year, with a total decline of 8% to 31.6 million in 2025.
Vehicle theft claims also fell in 2025, by 25%, with losses increasingly concentrated among a small group of vehicle brands and high-value components. Select Infiniti models ranked among the highest for theft-to-collision ratios in 2025, along with select Kia, Hyundai, and Acura models, according to Verisk.
Commercial auto claims volume fell 5% in 2025 but remained 14% higher than in 2021, reflecting longer-term expansion of commercial driving risk, the report states.
Gig-related commercial auto claims jumped 96% since 2021. As of year-end 2025, they account for 10% of all commercial auto claims, driven largely by food delivery and ride-hailing activity.
An emerging risk trend Verisk tracks, related to autonomous vehicles, is also on the rise.
According to the report, while the deployment of autonomous driving technologies increased in 2025, the number of claims involving self-driving cars (as identified by related terms in the Involved Parties or Loss Descriptions) quadrupled from around 100 claims in 2021 to over 400 claims in 2025. Claims associated specifically with autonomous ride-hailing vehicles increased even more sharply, by a factor of 20, during the same period, Verisk reports.
A second emerging claim trend, often filed under “other” policy, bodily injury, and liability loss types, involving silica or crystalline dust also increased, and according to Verisk, by an exponential amount. It rose from just over 100 claims to just under 2,000 in 2025. Claims related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), or “forever chemicals,” also rose over the period, increasing from minimal reported volumes to 700 claims.
“Claims data is often the earliest signal of how risk is changing,” said Shane Riedman, Verisk’s anti-fraud analytics president, in the release. “Even as overall volumes declined in 2025, the underlying loss patterns tell a very different story. This report analyzes claims activity at scale, and can help insurers better gauge risk, anticipate emerging risks, identify subrogation opportunities, and make smarter decisions for the year ahead.”
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